Work with me

Macro-financial strategy for institutions that need to know how a system clears before they need to know where it trades.

I take commissioned work from two directions. Ship finance and freight: lenders, lessors, owners, marine insurers and platforms. Allocators and credit funds: where the question is euro-area sovereign and monetary risk read structurally rather than off the spread. The brief is usually a version of the same one -- below the headline, what is the actual structure of claims here, where does the pressure sit, and what breaks first.

Areas

Shipping and trade finance

Freight exposure is working-capital exposure. Chartering and freight-rate risk, tonne-mile and throughput demand, forwarder and carrier working capital, trade finance structures, and the capital stack behind a fleet -- including Greek and Mediterranean maritime economics. From inside the industry, and written up in Cargo & Collateral.

Sovereign credit and monetary structure

Read at the level of the mechanism, not the spread. Sovereign risk and debt management, monetary transmission, collateral and repo, fragmentation and the euro-area settlement plumbing beneath it. Where the structural view comes from: Eurozone, Subordination, Macro-Structures & DMO.

Balance-sheet modelling

For questions that need a structure rather than a forecast. Bespoke modelling of a monetary architecture, a sector or a firm as interlocking balance sheets, built to be interrogated rather than believed. Method: Balance-Sheet Modelling.

Ways to engage

• Expert calls -- a single conversation on a specific question.
• Commissioned notes and models -- a defined question, a defined deliverable, a fixed deadline.
• Speaking and workshops -- talks, seminars and closed-door briefings.

Defence-industrial and rearmament work is taken through a separate firm rather than under my own name. Contact me and I will route it.

To discuss a brief, contact me. Background: About & CV · Publications.

All engagements are undertaken in a personal capacity and are independent of any employer, past or present. Nothing produced under them is investment advice. See the disclaimer.