Modelling the economics of the defence-industrial base: industrial linkages, supply-chain resilience, and the fiscal sustainability of security spending.

Capability is downstream of industrial structure and financing. This strand applies macro-financial and structural economics to defence, asking the questions that run through the rest of my research -- how a system absorbs shocks, where dependencies concentrate, what it costs to hold capability over time -- of the defence-industrial base rather than the monetary system.

It was the substance of my work as a defence economist at the UKDSC to September 2026, and it continues as research: applied, quantitative, and aimed at decision-relevant intelligence for policy and industry. Reports I authored at the UKDSC contributed to shaping Ministry of Defence policy on measuring defence-industrial productivity, evaluating programme viability, assessing supply-chain resilience and vulnerability, and defining industrial readiness.

Themes

1 · Defence-industrial structure and resilience

Where supply-chain and strategic dependencies concentrate, and what industrial resilience actually requires. Input-Output modelling traces inter-sectoral linkages and spillovers across strategic sectors, alongside sector-level industrial assessment.

2 · Alliances, trade and burden-sharing

The economics of security cooperation and defence trade. Gravity models of bilateral defence and industrial flows -- including NATO and allied contexts -- and the structural forces shaping them.

3 · Fiscal sustainability of defence

Whether elevated defence commitments can be financed over the long run. This connects defence spending to sovereign debt dynamics, fiscal-monetary interaction, and the macroeconomic constraints I study elsewhere on this site.

4 · Capability, productivity and measurement

Frameworks for measuring defence-industrial productivity and performance, and scenario-based assessment of investment gaps and capability shortfalls. Stock-flow-consistent accounting, VAR models and scenario analysis.

Method

The toolkit mirrors the macro-financial work: Input-Output and gravity modelling, stock-flow-consistent and VAR frameworks, time-series and panel methods, and scenario analysis -- combined with qualitative industrial assessment and stakeholder engagement.

Related applied and macro work: Macro-Structures & DMO · Balance-Sheet Modelling · Cargo & Collateral, where rearmament is read as a financing problem.

Note: This page describes research themes and methods only. It does not represent, and should not be read as, the views, positions, or outputs of the UK Defence Solutions Centre, the Ministry of Defence, or any defence industry partner. See the disclaimer.