Modelling the economics of the defence-industrial base: industrial linkages, supply-chain resilience, and the fiscal sustainability of security spending.

A growing strand of my work applies the tools of macro-financial and structural economics to defence and security. The questions are the same ones that run through the rest of my research — how a system absorbs shocks, where dependencies concentrate, and what it costs to hold capability over time — asked of the defence-industrial base rather than the monetary system.

This work is applied and quantitative, built on economic modelling and sector-level analysis, and aimed at decision-relevant intelligence for policy and industry.

Themes

1 · Defence-industrial structure & resilience

How defence production is linked across sectors, where supply-chain and strategic dependencies concentrate, and what industrial resilience requires. I use Input-Output modelling to trace inter-sectoral linkages and spillovers across strategic sectors, alongside sector-level industrial assessment.

2 · Alliances, trade & burden-sharing

The economics of security cooperation and defence trade. I use gravity models to study bilateral defence and industrial flows — including NATO and allied contexts — and the structural forces shaping them.

3 · Fiscal sustainability of defence

Whether and how elevated defence commitments can be financed over the long run. This connects defence spending to sovereign debt dynamics, fiscal-monetary interaction, and the wider macroeconomic constraints I study elsewhere on this site.

4 · Capability, productivity & measurement

Frameworks for measuring defence-industrial productivity and performance, and scenario-based assessment of investment gaps and capability shortfalls. Methodologically this draws on stock-flow-consistent (SFC) accounting, VAR models, and scenario analysis.

Method

The toolkit here mirrors my macro-financial work: Input-Output and gravity modelling, stock-flow-consistent and VAR frameworks, time-series and panel methods, and scenario analysis — combined with qualitative industrial assessment and stakeholder engagement.

Related applied and macro work: Macro-Structures & DMO · Balance-Sheet Modelling

Note: This page describes research themes and methods only. It does not represent, and should not be read as, the views, positions, or outputs of the UK Defence Solutions Centre, the Ministry of Defence, or any defence industry partner. See the disclaimer.