Modelling the defence-industrial base

Capability is downstream of industrial structure and financing. This strand applies macro-financial and structural economics to defence, asking of the defence-industrial base the questions that run through the rest of my research: how a system absorbs shocks, where dependencies concentrate, what it costs to hold capability over time.

It was the substance of my work as a defence economist at the UKDSC to September 2026. It continues commercially at Garrison Sterling, the defence economics firm I co-founded and direct, and as research here: applied, quantitative, and aimed at decision-relevant intelligence for policy and industry.

Industrial structure and resilience

Where supply-chain and strategic dependencies concentrate, and what industrial resilience actually requires. Input-Output modelling traces inter-sectoral linkages and spillovers across strategic sectors.

Alliances, trade and burden-sharing

Gravity models of bilateral defence and industrial flows, including NATO and allied contexts, and the structural forces shaping them.

Fiscal sustainability of defence

Whether elevated defence commitments can be financed over the long run: defence spending connected to sovereign debt dynamics, fiscal-monetary interaction, and the macroeconomic constraints studied elsewhere on this site.

Capability, productivity and measurement

Frameworks for measuring defence-industrial productivity and performance, and scenario-based assessment of investment gaps and capability shortfalls. Stock-flow-consistent accounting, VAR models and scenario analysis.

Outputs

This page describes research themes and methods only. It does not represent the views, positions, or outputs of the UK Defence Solutions Centre, the Ministry of Defence, Garrison Sterling, or any defence industry partner. See the disclaimer.